Sunday night and I find myself and my partner over at great friends of ours for an evening of good food, home made parsnip wine and a film. We are all a little bit political so the conversation would slip in that direction sooner or later.
Someone lit the blue touch paper with ‘how’s the Referendum going? and we were off ..
Although our friends are Londoners their roots are bedded in one of the oldest Scottish clans, the Chisholms dating back to the 13th century – you will have heard of the clan if you have watched ‘The Cheviot, the stag and the black, black oil’.
I try to keep it light with some of the headlines over the past few weeks. I touch on the ‘big debate’, Europe, currency and Trident. ‘Oh, there was a big debate? who was that?’ You see, this did not make the news down south because the BBC expected Darling to get a ‘workmanlike doin” so it was ignored. However, as you read on, the return match occurred half way through my blog! You could say the BBC were lulled into a false sense of security when they televised the second ‘big debate’ – oh dear!
‘Of course they won’t win, the NO campaign are well ahead’ was the consensus around the table. At this point the blue touch paper had burnt out so I was obliged to explain this was Westminster news and the usual pack of lies. This was not a difficult concept to get across, because our little group are passionately opposed to Tories, LibDems and especially New Labour.
I explained that the ‘established’ opinion polls were somewhat ‘managed’, commissioned by the Better Together controllers and generally based on sample audiences of around 1/20 of 1%; so completely unrepresentative. I know first hand that the YESScotland polls taken out on the streets and at doorsteps are conducted honestly and thoroughly and take in a vastly greater sample size. The results we get paint a very, very different picture. When I stated that Scotland will return a YES vote the response was a simple ‘OK, we get it’.
Of course you cannot leave it there so over the evening and before the big film I explained some further detail on the lies and deception that has been served up by the traditional media. Selling the concept of the media lying is easier than accusing Luis Suarez of biting.
I suppose I did go on a bit about currency sharing, the financial crisis from 2008 and the role of Bank of England.
Quite content that I had managed to put my point across I realised I had strayed into unintended consequences. Because I have so many friends and family, specifically in London, and especially my partner {I don’t do names because you never know? you just never know who’s taking a sneaky peak and making notes!} I am extremely concerned about the consequences for England after a YES votes. I am not at all concerned about getting a YES vote because I am totally convinced but I am also sufficient determined to fight until the last YES vote is in.
Anyway, back to the unintended consequences. ‘What shall we do with our money? Will the banks in London collapse? What future do we have?’ was the concerned voices around the table.
I have been so wrapped up in the pursuit of a YES vote that I had taken my thinking to the triumph of 19 September and not much further.
Now I was confronted by genuine concern borne of my partner and friends trust in my opinion. I had successfully worried the life out of them, which was not my intention.
Suddenly, I found myself having to take personal responsibility for the alarm caused by my enthusiasm. I could not leave it there. I must take my vision forward to placate them.
Over the next couple of hours, oh! and the big film, I dived down into the depth of my vision to take the debate forward, but with real hope for the future.
I believe we have a duty to recognise that we have a vast array of supporters and sympathisers south of the border in England and in Ireland and Wales and we would be hypocritical to forget that they are all entitled to a future, and a better future at that. Scotland will not take a YES vote as a ticket to a better future for Scotland,
SCOTLAND WILL TAKE A YES VOTE AS A TICKET FOR A BETTER FUTURE FOR SCOTLAND, ITS FRIENDS AND ITS ALLIES.
And that is a good place to start my vision.
I can only imagine what it must have been like at 11am on 3 September 1939 when Neville Chamberlain told the people of Britain we were at war with Germany. Everyone must have been numbed with disbelief.
Similarly, on 19 September 2014 when David Cameron has to tell the people of these islands that Scotland has voted YES to become an independent country I can only imagine the disbelief felt by all those people who have believed the media hype served up to them.
People who have dismissed the possibility of Scottish Independence will probably plunge into denial then emerge to disbelief, dismay, confusion and probably anger. Who knows who that anger will be directed at. Denial will bring out feelings of ‘well they can’t do that, this must be wrong, they’re not getting our bloody pound, we’ll see about that and who the hell do they think they are, anyway?’
Of course, these feelings will not last long and eventually there will be a calm and people will be overwhelmed by a feeling of ‘what do we do now, what will happen next?’ This is the moment when Cassius Clay got up off the canvas and stared across at Henry Cooper!
This is because Westminster completely refused to consider the possibility of Scottish independence. They were so totally sure this would never happen. They had complete faith in their dark forces and dirty tricks brigade. They had complete faith in the traditional media they completely controlled. They had believed their own hype!
THEY UNDERESTIMATED THE DETERMINATION OF THE SCOTTISH PEOPLE
Westminster will have no immediate answers, they will have no excuses and nowhere to hide. Some will say to Westminster, ‘You did not believe UKIP would win the European elections – then they did – did you not even consider the possibility that Scotland would vote YES?
WESTMINSTER WILL BE STRUCK DUMB – THEY WILL HAVE NO ANSWER
So what will happen next?
FIRST OF ALL, SCOTLAND WILL BE MAGNANIMOUS IN SUCCESS
Some immediate facts will emerge.
Firstly, all the hype counts for nothing and Scotland and England will take an immediate ‘reality reset’.
England is Scotland’s largest trading partner. Scotland is England’s second largest trading partner. Anything at all that compromises that relationship would be mutually assured destruction – that will not be allowed to happen. So let’s be clear about that. Let’s not also forget that although Scotland is an eleventh the size of England by population and discounting oil, has a GDP of around 20% of that of England, England’s economy is balanced on a knife edge and is probably the least able country in the western world to think about playing hardball. So let us put those negative thoughts in room 101.
The peoples of Scotland and the peoples of the rest of the UK and especially England have family and friends on either side of all the borders. Everyone will demand that we collaborate to build a better outcome for everyone.
There will be a key question, ‘Why could we not sort this out before the referendum? Why did we get this far? why did we have to have a referendum?’
The answer to that question is the key to the whole debate. There was an elephant in the room. There was a huge elephant in the room. It wasn’t Scotland’s elephant. It was not England’s elephant. It was not Ireland’s elephant and it was not Wales’s elephant. So where did that bloody elephant come from?
The elephant is old even by elephant standards. In fact it is 307 years old, borne of the Union of the Parliaments in 1707. The elephant in the room is that upper tier of Parliament that includes the Government and Opposition that we refer to as the ‘Establishment’. Today it is The Eton Boys and their chums.
They may feign to be sworn enemies as they ‘play the game of Government’. However, with the threat of a challenge to the Establishment they ‘chummy up together’ to destroy the challengers in the form of YESScotland. This has all the hallmarks of the last days of empire.
I’m no historian but for me this is a replay of Glencoe when the King (William of Orange) signed the death warrant of the MacDonalds in Glencoe. This was a reprisal for late recognition of the Union?
In a remarkable analogy, the King employed Scots to go among their intended victims, accept their hospitality and murder them in their sleep. Does that sound a bit familiar?
Is it me or can anyone else see the madness of the Prime Minister of the UK when faced with what he perceives to be the break-up of the United Kingdom, he decides it is nothing to do with him or his Government and nominates Alistair Darling, the failed Chancellor from the Labour party and a has-been by any account, to lead the campaign to retain the Union. This is the man steeped in the intrigue of the banking crisis and discredited as a UK Chancellor. This is the Labour man that the Tory Prime Minister nominates as his champion to save the Union? This goes way beyond bad judgement. Over breakfast this morning of 26 August, someone in the Cameron household who watched the Salmond debate with Darling last night must have whispered, ‘maybe it was not a great idea to entrust Darling? Looks like he just blew it!’ So back to that old elephant and what is to be done about. That takes us back to 19 September 2014. From day 1 of the campaign I have been totally convinced of a YES vote. Triumphs along the way such as the debate of Mon 25 Sep are great but we must not take our foot off the pedal. For me, the debate was a little morale booster, then let’s get on with the job. OK – 18 September has passed, Scotland triumphed, Scotland is MAGNANIMOUS and now moves into TWO key stages. There is an 18 month negotiation period and a Scottish General Election in 2016 to prepare for.
I am going to leave it there and move south of the border because I can see a THIRD stage that is just as important as the other two. I still have that elephant in mind and I have a vision of how this whole business can play out.
Back in London the Government will have their best spin doctors working on their excuses. The Government lost the EU election in May 2014 and now they have lost Scotland. This will have to be good. Actually, it will have to be a bloody miracle.
But this is a step too far. The people of England sent Cameron and his Government a message in May over Europe. He did not listen. In September, the people of Scotland sent Cameron another message. This time it does not matter whether he is listening or not. The game is not up for Cameron, the game is up for the whole cabal. When the light of Scottish independence came on, the ‘Establishment’ were caught in the room and there was nowhere to hide.
None of the parties has an answer. Labour ruined the economy, LibDems traded their moral compass for a seat in Government with the Tories and now the Tories have lost the EU and Scotland. This is the Cabal, this is the ‘Establishment’,
THIS IS THE ELEPHANT IN THE ROOM
Something has to happen and I can see a ‘pincer’ move. On one side I see a new political force in England; a new English National Party ENP. The name can be anything, but I see a political party coming forward to claim and represent English Nationalism. England has suffered in the absence of a party that specifically represents the English people. The West Lothian question was never answered, [read about it] – this is why, for example England has tuition fees; Tony Blair courted the support of Scottish Labour MPs. Scotland, Ireland and Wales all have their parties of national identity. England was simply consumed within the UK where the true identity of the English has become skewed and diluted.
Coming in from the other side, Scotland will want to deal with politicians and leaders from England that they can trust.
If the referendum had been conducted with respect and dignity on both sides as agreed from the outset then both parties could accept the result. However, if either side has been disrespectful it would prove to be very difficult or even impossible to reconcile differences. I wouldn’t say the Better Together campaign was disrespectful, I struggle to find the words to describe their behaviour and that of the ‘establishment’. As I have said many times, we could have expected such behaviour from Putin, Kim Jung Un or Assad but our own ‘establishment’ has demonstrated deviousness and treachery on an industrial scale.
There can be no compromise, no concessions, no deals and no coming back from the treachery of the establishment. That is not to say that an Independent Scottish Government can’t work with an English or a UK Government; of course it can, and it must; just, not that particular elephant.
But here’s the thing. The people of the UK said exactly the same thing in the EU elections in May. Against the odds, UKIP triumphed over the Westminster elite and romped home in the EU elections with almost 4.5 Million votes, 350,00 ahead of Labour. Cameron’s Government used every dirty trick to prevent that but the people spoke loud and clear and rejected the Tories, Labour and the LibDems [check out the results]
What we have now is a UK within the EU where the majority player in not the Government or the opposition or even the ‘establishment’, but UKIP. How does a Tory Government square that one?
The key point is that the establishment could be, and was, beaten fair and square.
After the YES vote, I believe that a) UKIP in Scotland will melt away and b) UKIP in England will no longer have a UK in UKIP. However, around 4 million of their voters come from England.
I predict that UKIP will morph into a very different party. I predict that the top layer of the party, the Nigel Farage brigade will drift to their Tory aspirations and a bedrock of English Nationals will emerge to form a new English National Party. They may not call themselves the English National Party but I think that would be as good a name as any. Let’s stay with the ENP for now.
Already we are seeing candidates from UKIP announcing their candidacy for the 2015 elections. I could not help but note in a BBC interview that Nigel Farage side-stepped a question whether he would do any ‘no compete’ deals with the Tories following Boris Johnston’s nomination.
We now see a defection by Conservative MP Douglas Carswell to UKIP, and there are many more in the exit lobby, as hinted at by UKIP MEP Patrick O’Flynn and their party treasurer, Stuart Wheeler. Ask yourself this; are these conservatives defecting to UKIP to fight for a UK exit from Europe when their own party has committed to an EU referendum they will surely lose? Of course not. This is a realignment of right wing politics and probably the early knockings of an English National Party. Powerful characters such as Carswell are not coming across to UKIP to ‘toe the party line’ under Nigel Farage, they have their eyes set on a bigger prize!
There are many candidates from the ENP, sorry UKIP core, that will stand at the 2015 General Election. I suspect that all or almost all seats will be contested.
Coming from a very strong base and with huge electoral credibility it is possible that an ENP may offer a very credible and compelling alternative to the discredited incumbents, who, let’s face it, just lost the EU and Scotland. The ‘Establishment’ or should I call them the ‘elephant in the room’ does not figure in this equation. I think they are heading to room 101.
But what could an ENP offer the people of England? Where do you start? After 23 years in the City of London I have learn a few things. The ordinary people of London are simply not represented. No party speaks specifically for England. No party represents the issues of importance to England. England has been multi-racial and inclusive for centuries. It is now told it is multi-cultural and in my view that is divisive. Their country is massively over-populated. They are being told that even by the more recent immigrants. You must queue for everything, the NHS is almost gone, you pay for your medicines and you pay through the nose just to park at a hospital. Your kids pay £9,000 per annum in Uni fees, which is going up further and travel is about the most expensive in the civilised world. A few blogs ago I talked about the chaos on the roads in England, that does not suit anyone except the petrol companies. Workers in the service industries, probably the majority of workers in London have been chased out of London because they cannot afford a home. Outside of London and the further north you go, English people are a forgotten race, sandwiched between London at the centre of gravity of the UK and a now Independent Scotland. The wealth of the country has been sucked into the London centre of gravity. An English National Party would be spoiled for choice in terms of popular policies for the future.
So, consider this. The ‘Establishment’ are universally discredited – any by ‘Establishment’ I include the higher echelons of all three parties. They are despised in these islands. They have no credibility with the ordinary people. A new Scottish Government are determined and it is essential to forge new and stronger relations with their neighbour, England, that is predicated on an equal partnership – but not with the old ‘Establishment’. An English National Party would be determined and it would be essential to forge new and stronger relations with Scotland that is predicated on this equal partnership – but not with the old ‘Establishment’. The old ‘Establishment’ are caught in a pincer movement and, by popular demand, vanquished to room 101. This or something very similar to this could happen. All the motivations are there, all the potential benefits are identifiable and achievable and the levers are there waiting to be pulled,
THE TIME IS RIGHT
The four countries of these islands can and must prosper together based on collaboration, mutual respect and a strong sense of social justice. England will re-invent itself in it own unique way and each country will compliment the others.
These are the British Isles and therefore every inhabitant is entitled to call themselves British. With this new collaboration between nations British will mean something more, and better than the colonial definition we have grown up with. However, each nation will also have their own national identity reflecting the culture and values of their country.
Finally, and very importantly, I know there are a lot of republicans out there and who knows, that may be on the cards for later; I suspect much later if at all. For now their are new nations to be built, new and better identities to be forged and as this spirit progresses, the peoples of these island will truly be able to say:
NOW – WE ARE BETTER TOGETHER
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