The YES campaign are reasonably confident that Scotland will return a YES vote in the referendum on 18 September 2014. If you simply want 100% convincing then click HERE
From ‘the numbers’ below a YES victory it is very convincing – and is it any wonder Better Together are scampering about changing everything and trying to spin everything!
But 2 things are absolutely vital. Despite the Edinburgh Agreement, if the referendum returns a narrow victory for YES then Westminster will try every trick in the book – and probably invent some new ones, to force a re-run, just as the EU did in Ireland. They must, because the rUK economy will be in serious doubt. Therefor, it is vital that YES achieves a substantial victory. This is the view of Gordon Wilson, ex Leader of the SNP and now an elder statesman.
That brings me to my 2nd point. Achieving a substantial victory would be very realistic with the support of Scottish Labour voters. ‘Independence for Labour’ as a breakaway group are already there and no doubt they will re-form socialism in an Independent Scotland. However, the mass of traditional Labour voters, or should I say New Labour voters, are still there to be convinced.
One thing is fairly certain. If it is clear, before the referendum, that Conservatives will win the UK general election in 2015 then many or very many Scottish Labour voters will come across to YES. They will do so in the knowledge that they will have a vital role in the Governance of the first truly united and Independent Scotland in history. They could even have the leading role. Look what happened to Winston Churchill in 1945, he lost to Clement Attlee and Britain got a Labour Government!
The most likely way to ensure a Conservative victory in 2015 is by default. If New Labour become UNELECTABLE.
1. The popular view is that New Labour, Brown,Blair and Darling got us in to this mess. It is of such a magnitude that it is still hanging around like a bad smell and IT WON’T GO AWAY FOR YEARS TO COME
2. Like it or not, Conservatives with their pet puppy are able to tell the UK that the economy is getting back on track, unemployment is falling and we are returning to growth. You may scream that this is all a load of spin and only applies to London and the South East – electorally though, we don’t count! and what we think does not matter. Ed Balls is on record FAILING TO COUNTER THE AUSTERITY MEASURES in fact he has pledged MORE OF THE SAME. He is the man without a plan. Read more.
3. Gordon Brown has re-emerged on to the political scene. Even if it is only in Scotland; he has to be the biggest liability in politics – well, almost. Read on …
4 However, Ed Miliband looks certain to lead New Labour into the 2015 election. If not, who is going to replace him? Even if they did, could they turn it around in such a short time? The media have the knives out for him in much the same way as they utterly destroyed Neil Kinnock, John Major and Gordon Brown. When the Sun can headline with ‘SILLY,BILLY,MILI’ unimpeded, then the writing is on the wall. The Sun remains the most read traditional daily in the UK and they claim that voters would rather vote for Blair than Miliband. That, is a ‘Coup de Grace‘
5. Unfortunately for Ed, events conspired against him the very next day. The trouble in ‘Blair torn’ Iraq flared up monumentally on the World Stage. And who appears on the World Stage? TONY BLOODY BLAIR! He is actually calling for MILITARY INTERVENTION in Iraq and probably Syria. Within minutes he is being branded a MENTAL and Boris ‘goof’ Johnson called him UNHINGED and in need of ATTENTION FOR MENTAL HEALTH.
This is the guy who has just usurped Ed Miliband in terms of popularity with New Labour voters?
ED, SORRY MATE, YOU ARE DOOMED, YOU ARE UNELECTABLE, NEW LABOUR IS UNELECTABLE IN 2015
New Labour must re-morph back to just Labour, re-discover their socialist roots, join the YES campaign is Scotland and make the DIFFERENCE in the first INDEPENDENT SCOTLAND
Stop Press: Unison dep. Convener declares YES/ latest poll – 34% of Labour voters will vote YES – click to the story
So, where are we at the moment?
THE NUMBERS
Numerically, the vast majority of SNP voters will vote YES. Remember SNP is and has remained to date, a majority Government. So that’s a good start.
The Green Party command about 5% of the electorate and they will be voting YES.
There is a growing number of Labour voters aligned with Labour for Independence and they will be voting YES.
Although not huge in numbers, around 9,000 Trade Union rank and file members who are dedicated socialists will follow the lead of their YES campaign; Trade Unions for Independence.
There are substantial number of people in Scotland not aligned to any of the above – nevertheless, they will be voting YES.
There also remains a very significant number of Undecided voter. The majority of Undecided voters appears to be women – of course, woman are generally more careful. Remember, it is only a problem if you are still undecided in the polling booth! With more than 90 days left to decide there is plenty of time for the women of Scotland to question and reflect on the issues that will enable them to decide. To date the polls suggest that the conversion rate for Undecided voters is about 2:1 for YES.
I believe that Undecided voters are potential YES voters who have yet to be convinced. That said, if they do not get the information that will enable them to vote YES then they will either not vote or vote NO. The greatest tragedy of this referendum would be a potential YES voter being denied the information that would convince them – when that information was out there and available.
Then there is a vast army of Scots who have never voted or not voted recently because they were disillusioned or unimpressed with what was on offer. A referendum on Scottish independence is so uniquely important that many will be drawn out to vote. Indications are that the turn-out will be very high.
It is very reasonable to assume that if a person who has not voted recently and is moved to vote in Scotland’s Referendum will seek information. This is where YES is very strong and Better Together are incredibly weak. YES have put out a vast amount of information to be consumed and challenged. By contrast, you can sum up the information given out by Better Together in one word ‘because’. On that basis, I am confident that new voters will be more inclined towards YES. However, we must not be complacent.
But it’s about more than number?
QUALITY
The duration, width and intensity of the Yes Campaign at local branch level is almost unprecedented in politics in my lifetime. Ordinary people who previously kept politics at arms length have become intensely, politically aware, motivated and most importantly; MOBILISED. They adorn themselves with YES branded clothing and badges and go out into the public handing out leaflet, knocking on doors, turning up early at meetings to assist in the set up and actively engaging in every meeting regardless of time or travel. This is not the YES Campaign – this is the YES ARMY.
By contrast, Better Together came late to the party, are very poorly and sparsely dispersed and refuse to engage in most public debates. When you do get to speak with them they offer fact free comment which is generally blind criticism. They constantly talk in cliches. They fail to recognise that WHY is a question? They even have guest speakers in heavily stage managed events where they charge a substantial ENTRANCE FEE – seriously!
It is almost indisputable that the YES campaign has run a significantly better campaign than the negative, fear ridden Better Together campaign. Clearly, they are dividing within their own ranks, especially with the emergence of characters (or is that liabilities) such as Gordon Brown; this is a serious polarisation. It is never a good thing, and often a very bad sign when you make strategic shifts mid-stream. Such is the case with Better Together, sorry No Thanks – what will it be tomorrow Probably Not?
Better Together FAIL to recognise that Scots do respond to bullying, do respond to being patronised, do respond to being lied to – they respond by fighting back!
Frankly, the standard of the debate, or rather lack of it, from Better Together would shame any 3rd World country and they bring shame to Scotland with the world looking in.
Their approach, adopting and displaying pride in their Project Fear tag would seem to be a serious error of judgement.
Their attempts to garner the support of World Leaders such as Barrack Obama, Hilary Clinton, Chinese Premier Li Keqiang and the Pope by spinning or quoting them out of context is disrespectful to these leaders, deplorable in a democracy and verging on a breach of the terms of the referendum.
ARGUMENT WINNERS
If you only take in one piece of information before voting in the referendum I would recommend John Jappy on Scotlands’ oil:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eKYdh1ccAPY
John Jappy is now an elderly gent. He is as close to an expert as we will get and 1M% more reliable than most politicians. Dig into your conscience and ask yourself if you are looking at a liar or a decent respectable man trying to give us all the benefit of his experience and see what; a) we could have had, and b) what we still can have.
But be warned, if you watch this clip you will vote YES.
As if you needed any further convincing, consider this. We are all aware of the main reason UK banks were bailed out. They had been allowed by the Government, mainly New Labour but also as far back as Thatcher with her vision for Canary Wharf, to expand through mergers and acquisitions to become TOO BIG TO FAIL.
The entire banking industry was nowhere near as vital to the UK as shipbuilding was to Scotland. Proportionally, almost everyone in Scotland worked in, was related to, or was close to someone in shipbuilding or the allied trades such as heavy engineering, steel production or the finishing trades. Shipbuilding was to some extent, Scotland – we were the World Leaders by a mile and we had a great future; if managed properly. We were not too big to fail, WE WERE FAR TOO BIG TO FAIL.
WE WERE WIPED OUT. IT’S ALMOST AS IF CLYDE SHIPPING WAS NUKED – A BARREN WASTELAND THAT REMAINS TO THIS DAY WITH A COUPLE OF CRANES TO RUB SALT IN OUR WOUNDS.
THIS WAS NOT A COMMERCIAL DECISION, –
THIS WAS A VINDICTIVE POLITICAL DECISION.
WHEN YOU TURN UP AT THE POLLING BOOTH, IF YOU ARE STILL UNDECIDED, REFLECT ON EITHER OF THE ABOVE – YOU CAN ONLY VOTE ONE WAY!
Throughout this recent campaign we have been shadowed by a fantastic Japanese film crew; because they care more about the campaign than our media. Here’s a shocking truth, the elders amongst them have seen or experience TOTAL WIPE OUT – the sight of the Clydeside must have SENT A SHIVER DOWN THEIR SPINES!!
Finally, this will blow your mind. In the US State of Kentucky there is an area called BARREN. At its centre is its principle township, called – GLASGOW. This is not made up, link