Scotland’s Referendum – The Madness of Certainty

Certainty is a political trick.  Not a particularly clever one, because when you understand what is going on you will never be fooled again.  In fact, Carlo Rovelli, the eminent philosopher states that certainty is a dangerous and damaging concept.

Why ‘The madness of certainty’? well, when you realise you have fallen for this trick, it will make you mad, really mad.  It’s never a good feeling when you discover you have been fooled in such a simple yet convincing manner.

Every time I watch or take part in a debate about Scotland’s referendum I don’t have to wait long until someone from the Better Together campaign brings up ‘certainty’ with a look of confidence on their face.  Now, it just makes me smile because the penny has dropped.

Recently, at the Helensburgh & Lomond debate and then on the BBC Scottish Referendum debate in Kirkaldy, Jackie Baillie, Labour, asked for ‘certainty’  as the silver bullet for the argument.  She said the people of Scotland want answers, the people of Scotland want certainty.  A bell went off in my head, no, not tinnitus this time, this was the warning bell.  Jackie’s point, sorry trick, was to convince people that without certainty we should do nothing.  She couldn’t be more wrong if she tried.

So, let’s look at some examples of certainty:

1.  We want to get married.  Someone added 3 words to the vows, ‘are you certain?’.  Of course you’re not certain, how could you be.  So nobody gets married, if it’s dependent on certainty – unless they lie to themselves.

2.  We want to have children.  But can we be certain the child will be healthy?  Of course we can’t be certain.  So, no children – oops we have just wiped out humanity.

3.  You’re not well and you need and operation.  Can you be certain you will survive the operation or even the general anesthetic? Well, of course not.  So no operations.  If you get sick, you die.

4.  At the centre of the global economy we have the world’s stock markets.  We need certainty here surely.  However, if we did find certainty there would be a criminal investigation into ‘insider trading’.  Stock Market’s whole ‘raison d’etre’ is uncertainty!  Oops, we just lost the world of commerce.

5.  You apply for a job.  The interview went well and they are considering you.  Suddenly, someone begs that fateful question, ‘can we be certain you will be right for the job?’  OK, nobody gets a job?

6.  At last, we have managed to find certainty.  We are certain we will have a healthy life, our home will be secure and our travel will be safe.  Oops, we have just wiped out the insurance industry.

We could go on and on and on.   Sooner or later we will realise that life is all about UNCERTAINTY, how we recognise it, how we prepare for it and how we deal with it.

The major political parties know there is no such thing as certainty, with the exception of death.  However, they demand it from their opponents because they know it can never be delivered.  They usually use the old trick of demanding answers to show certainty.

So here’s the thing.  Demanding certainty sounds like you are being diligent, sounds very plausible, sounds like you really know what you are talking about.

However, the counter argument is simple.  I’m not certain, are you – explain to me why you are certain.  Of course, they can’t.

If you can think of a single political certainty, give it a name, ‘the holy grail’.

The SNP have published their ‘White paper’.  It’s a very hefty tome and it maps out what they hope to achieve through negotiation following a YES vote.  Can they be certain of anything in the document?  of course NOT.

One of the first tricks deployed for the Referendum, from the Edinburgh Agreement, was to oblige the SNP to publish the White Paper in the knowledge that it begs the most obvious questions from the ‘devious’, as we have all witnessed;  Can you be certain that you will have a currency union?  Can you be certain to remain in the EU?  Can you be certain that ……  ?  and on and on and on.

So, you see how it is done!  The only thing that Alex Salmond can be certain about is that he can’t be certain.  I am certain of that!  Oh! dear, I just found another certainty, other than death, that’s 2 now!

Please, please, please don’t let yourself be fooled by the ‘certainty trap’.